🇸🇲 Road to Basel: San Marino

📷 EBU/Sarah Louise Bennett Tonight is the night: the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. By the end of the evening, we will know which country has won. The show The show will, of course, be opened by JJ, last year’s winner. He will perform the “Queen of the Night” aria together with his winning song “Wasted Love”. After that, the party gets started with Denmark. The line-up of 25 songs ends with Austria. That is not a case of the host country pulling strings: Austria drew that position fair and square. Once all the songs have been performed, the voting can begin. To bridge the gap, there will be an interval act. There has been plenty of grumbling about the quality of this year’s broadcasts, but this interval act looks genuinely fun. Big Eurovision names will take viewers on a journey through the contest’s entire history. Expect not only Verka Serduchka and Alexander Rybak, but also Max Mutzke, Ruslana, Lordi, Kristian Kostov, Erika Vikman and Miriana Conte. For every Eurovision fan, it should be a real treat. Cesár Sampson will then perform Billy Joel’s hit “Vienna”, while Joel himself will deliver a recorded message. Finland is the Eurovision 2026 winner favourite So, who is going to win? On paper, one entry stands head and shoulders above the rest: Finland’s Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen with “Liekinheitin”. Bookmakers have made Finland the clear favourite. EurovisionWorld currently lists “Liekinheitin” at 42% to win, ahead of Australia’s Delta Goodrem with “Eclipse” on 19% and Greece’s Akylas with “Ferto” on 8%. The fan polls tell a similar story. Finland won the OGAE Poll with 459 points, followed by Denmark and Australia. It also won the INFE Poll with 172 points, ahead of Greece and Sweden. On My Eurovision Scoreboard, Finland was also ranked first, with more than 56,000 app users included in the rankings. That matters because Finland looks like a rare jury-televote hybrid. ESC Insight’s model placed “Liekinheitin” almost evenly between jury and public support. The running order also helps: Finland performs 17th, in the second half of the show. Why Australia can still win Australia is the big late challenger. After Delta Goodrem’s semi-final performance, The Guardian reported that Australia jumped from fourth to second in the odds, behind only Finland. There is also rehearsal momentum. Eurovoix reported that Australia topped the final press poll. It also won the Grand Final audience poll after Dress Rehearsal Two, with 562 votes, or 15.5%, from 3,620 participants. Streaming, YouTube and iTunes clues Spotify and YouTube do not decide Eurovision, but they do show reach. Aussievision’s latest Spotify ranking, dated 10 May, has Italy first with 25.4 million streams, Sweden second with 18.6 million and Finland third with 12.3 million. On YouTube, Malta leads with 7.2 million views, followed by Greece and Cyprus, while Finland sits fifth with 3.58 million. The iTunes picture is more scattered. ESC Tracker shows “Liekinheitin” at number one in Finland, but Italy’s “Per sempre sì” is also charting well across several countries. Prediction: Finland, with Australia close behind So, who is gonna win Eurovision tonight? The safest prediction is Finland. The odds, fan polls and running order all point in the same direction. However, Australia is the danger. If juries reward Delta Goodrem’s vocals and the public connects with the performance, “Eclipse” could still overturn the favourite. Israel Still, last year showed us that Israel can score extremely well with the televote. Later research suggested that, partly because of calls from the government to vote for Israel twenty times, the country received far more votes than expected. The rules have since been tightened. Even so, something similar could happen again. Israel has already received a warning over this kind of behaviour this year. That makes Israel a possible winner too, whether we like it or not. Our prediction: Finland wins Eurovision 2026, Australia finishes close behind, and Greece, Denmark and Israel fight for the rest of the top five. Let’s hope people vote for the music and the show.